Landslides

Rescue missions

   The affected area is difficult to access. Aid workers are trying to make their way through the rushing water, mud and fallen trees. The landslides destroyed a major bridge that gave access to the region. The Indian army has been deployed in the rescue efforts, to build an emergency bridge, among other things. The army is also present with helicopters. The harsh weather conditions do not exactly make the rescue work easy.

   The rescue operations have been ongoing since yesterday morning. Yesterday, the rescue teams could not save many people due to the bad weather conditions. About 500 to 600 personnel from the NDRF team, army, state police, forest guards and volunteers, carried out the rescue operations today. They are trying their best to rebuild the bridge so that earth-moving equipment can be moved to the disaster area. So far, most of the digging is still being done manually. The rescue operations can be watched live on TV and it can be seen that people are very involved in the disaster. At the coffee and tea shop ‘The Tea Monk’, a large TV was on outside yesterday, where customers could follow the rescue operations. The government has declared two days of National Mourning. Schools and universities are closed. Also here on campus, all lectures have been cancelled for two days and we have just heard that tomorrow's classes are also cancelled. It is not inconceivable that even more tuition-free days will follow. After all, the Periyar river is also at critical height.

The Arabian sea is warming

   So what actually happened in Wayanad? Wayanad district received more than 140 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours between the mornings of Monday and Tuesday, about five times more than expected, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Several areas in the district reported more than 300 mm. The extremely heavy rainfall is linked to the warming of the Arabian Sea. Since the 1990s, the water temperature of the Arabian Sea has already risen more than 1 degree. The higher water temperature affects evaporation, atmospheric stability and hence monsoon rains. As a result, cumulonimbus clouds form more frequently. Where previously the monsoon was characterised by long periods of moderate rainfall, the pattern is now changing. There are increasingly frequent periods of extreme rainfall, some of which can be very localised.

   Kerala is roughly half made up of hills and mountainous areas with slopes of more than 20 degrees. These areas are highly prone to landslides during heavy rains. Landslide hotspots in Kerala are found in the districts of Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram. More than half of the landslides occur in areas with plantations. The Western Ghats region of Kerala used to be a densely forested area. The rubber, tea and cardamom plantations planted there cannot keep the soil together sufficiently. Years of deforestation of Kerala are therefore partly behind the current problems.

Extensive urbanisation

   As a result of the Wayanad landslides, the 13-year-old Madhav Gadgil panel report on Western Ghats has resurfaced. The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP), was chaired by Madhav Gadgil. Madhav Dhananjaya Gadgil is an Indian ecologist, academic, writer and columnist. He is the founder of the Centre for Ecological Sciences, a research forum under the banner of the Indian Institute of Science. Gadgil was also a member of the Scientific Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. His work has helped raise awareness about sustainable development and ecological protection

   The WGEEP panel (aka Gadgil Commission) was set up by the Indian government in 2010 to assess the environmental sensitivity of the Western Ghats and assess the potential impacts of climate change in the region. The panel recommended designating 75% of the 129,037-square-kilometre area of the mountain range as ecologically sensitive. This recommendation was based on the presence of dense forestation, a large number of endemic species and unique geology. The report warned against activities such as opening random quarries and building in ecologically sensitive areas of the Western Ghats. It also recommended a complete ban on new urbanisation to prevent pollution and destruction of a unique habitat.

   As so often when it comes to nature and environmental protection, the report met with resistance. There was opposition from state governments and industrial interest groups. This led to debates about the balance between development and nature conservation. None of the states accepted the conclusions of the Gadgil report. To address concerns, the recommendations were reviewed and amended by the Kasturirangan Commission in 2013. This committee proposed a ‘more balanced approach’ that tried to balance ecological protection and development needs. The commission proposed designating 37% of the total area of the Western Ghats (about 60,000 square kilometres) as ecologically sensitive area (ESA). This is half the 75% proposed in the Gadgil Commission report. This still opened the way for economic development in the area.
   The Kasturirangan Commission's recommendations affected forests and communities in four different Indian states, from south to north: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra. However, there was again resistance to this watered-down report. The proposed measures were only partially implemented. Each time, it turns out that local interests of farmers, tourism and industry block the protection of nature. Not only in the Netherlands, but also in Kerala.

Human share in the disaster

   The Gadgil report and the Kasturirangan Commission report already warned that the Western Ghats region is prone to natural disasters. But local governments and the local people resisted the recommendations from science. Madhav Gadgil told The Hindu newspaper that the government should have taken the recommendations of his report seriously. So this disaster is not just a natural disaster, but partly man-made. Kerala will face more frequent extreme rainfall during the monsoon in the future and will have to firmly tackle uncontrolled urbanisation. However, I fear that this time too, the recommendations will again get bogged down in Indian politics. Politicians are already accusing one another of not taking warnings seriously.